Global manufacturing bottoming say goodbye to dark moments, manufacturing winter will soon be over?

Monday (December 2), as well as the latest euro-zone manufacturing PMI in November the two countries Germany and France have begun to rebound the final value, the main Chinese manufacturing data as well as the United States and other countries have also previously announced pick up signs , the market began to focus on whether the manufacturing sector continued nearly two years of winter will soon be over. CICC macro analysis, said in the latest report, the recent positive signs in the global manufacturing industry may be partly due to the substantial easing since the beginning of the global central banks underpinning CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , demand has gradually stabilized, manufacturing industry restocking demand unfolding. “Look forward, we expect that with the coming up of the inventory cycle, global manufacturing is the worst in the past.” CICC macroeconomic research analyst for First Financial Zhangmeng Yun told reporters that the recovery will depend on whether the world still continue the sustainability of the recovery in demand, which still depends on the progress of global trade friction and global policies. Global manufacturing generally pick up the latest data showed the euro zone manufacturing PMI in November the final value of 46.9, 46.6 are expected and the former value. At the same time, Germany November manufacturing PMI final value of 44.1, France 51.7, were better than market expectations, compared with the previous values ​​have rebounded significantly. Market research firm IHS MARKIT economist Kerr (Eliot Kerr) said: “The latest PMI data show that in November the French manufacturing sector showing positive results.” Not only the euro area, the recent global manufacturing-related indicators have improved , in many countries the manufacturing PMI index has stabilized at low levels even began to rebound. Among them, the United States in November Markit manufacturing PMI initial value of 52.2, higher than last month’s 51.3; Japan in early November value of 48.6, 48.4 China’s manufacturing PMI in November the new fiscal December 2 last month also announced for. 51.8, better than the previous value of 51.7, predictive value of only 51.5. Since the beginning of 2018 after experiencing continued downward CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , Markit global manufacturing PMI index bottomed out at 49.5 in August this year, followed in September and October continuous rebounded slightly in October to reach 49.8.
“Some countries and regions in the latest Markit manufacturing PMI in November continued to rehabilitate, to display the upward trend still continues.” Zhangmeng Yun told CBN reporter. Manufacturing data to pick up significantly boosted market confidence. The euro zone, Germany November IFO sentiment survey and euro zone economic confidence index in November appear marginal rise, echoing a positive signal in November manufacturing PMI initial recovery previously announced. In addition, in October continued solid monetary and credit data, M3 up 5.6%, 3.7% year on year loans remain steady acceleration state, the European Central Bank monetary policy underpinning the effect is continuing to play a role. Today, the euro area and by Germany, France and manufacturing data to better promote, major European stock indexes obvious opening to go. Among them, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose about 0.5%; the French CAC40 to open higher 0.13% CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , the shares rose 0.7 percent expansion; Germany’s DAX index rose nearly 0.8%. The trend is still unknown whether the recovery can continue despite the global manufacturing sector bottomed out, but the rally could continue there are still many variables. “German manufacturing is making slight progress, PMI recorded a five-month high in November, but still well below the level of stability, let alone growth recovery.” IHS MARKIT economist Smith (Phil Smith) said. For the future of the manufacturing sector can continue to recover, gold is still dependent on global macroeconomic think needs repair. “Global manufacturing to inventory in a passive stage.” CICC macro analysis, said the global recovery after the 2016 post-resonance, and continue until the end of 2017, the global manufacturing industry initiative to add inventory. But since 2018 the impact, exacerbated by the trade friction, and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster and other factors, the slowdown in global demand, the manufacturing sector has experienced first passive plus inventory, then in the fourth quarter of 2018 began to enter the stage of the initiative to inventory and continued this year 8 month or so. Since the second half of this year, as the Federal Reserve led a global central bank easing into global demand also marginal repair, European and American manufacturing new orders rebound in September, manufacturing to inventory into the passive phase so far. CICC macro expects global manufacturing industry may experience a wave of restocking cycle in the first half of 2020. As global demand continues to marginal fixes, new global orders / inventory ratio to SeptemberTo begin to rise. Thus, through a long period of destocking of global manufacturing, may be gradually transferred to the restocking phase in the near future, to support global industrial sector output repair. Fluctuations in demand for the future of global manufacturing, financial conditions are favorable factors including the Federal Reserve and other global central banks brought the liberal demand to support the formation CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , especially in real estate and consumer durables; and this Meanwhile, euro area, Japan, India, Britain and other economies expansionary fiscal policy. “Downside risks include the ongoing trade frictions; US fiscal stimulus effects fade” CICC macro is expected in the baseline scenario, global growth will care policy under , gradually bottom.


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