Global manufacturing PMI index continued downward, the world economy vulnerable to run

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released in December 2019, the global manufacturing PMI further US economic downturn, the end of 2 months to rebound CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , down 0.4 from last month percentage points to 48.6%, the sixth consecutive month running at 50% or less. For the full year trend, the 2019 Global Manufacturing PMI mean of 50.1% over last year dropped 4.4 percentage points, fell significantly. From the monthly trend since August 2018, the global manufacturing PMI fluctuated downward trend. 2019, global manufacturing PMI to decline quarter by quarter, the mean one, two, three, four quarters was 51.9%, 50.5% and 49.3% and 48.8%, respectively. Since July 2019, the global manufacturing PMI 6 consecutive months running at 50% or less. Comprehensive data changes, by 2019, the global manufacturing industry as a whole showed the trend from high to low, growth is slowing down, the downward trend continued in the second half remained. Trade friction in different countries and in different regions of frequent external factors dragged down the global manufacturing industry. In this context, global investment and trade growth, lack of motivation, leading to weak global demand, are the underlying causes of global manufacturing continued downward. It expected in 2020, due to the US global manufacturing factors, the downward trend is difficult to significant improvement in the weak run repeatedly volatility will be the main feature of next year the global manufacturing and global economic performance, speed and amplitude fluctuations than in 2019 will be eased. Counter-cyclical policy adjustment effect will be apparent. The face of the gradual downward economic environment, governments around the world have increased the intensity of reverse cycle regulation , mainly to cut interest rates and loose monetary policy to increase investment in infrastructure-based expansion fiscal policy. The effect of these policies will continue to be released in 2020, to provide space to ease the downward pressure on the economy, play a role in curbing the speed of the economic downturn to some extent. The effectiveness of multilateral trade cooperation will be revealed. Persistent trade friction, making the world think about new development ideas, explore more opportunities for cooperation. The world’s major economies generally aware of the importance of multilateral trade cooperation, the establishment of a multilateral system of trade and economic cooperation conforms to the common interests of all countries to achieve open, win-win economic development and environmental cooperation has become the world’s mainTo collective aspirations economies. In the increasingly complex international economic environment, cooperation and win-win is more important than competition. Integration of resources in the world, is a joint development of the countries avoid downside risks, access to fundamental approach of sustainable development. 2019, various trade cooperation agreements between various countries and regions, the effect will gradually appear in 2020. By region, showed the following characteristics: rapid decline in the European manufacturing industry, the latter can be lows of December 2019, the end of the European manufacturing PMI 2 consecutive months, a slight upward trend, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 47.5 percent, Germany British and French manufacturing PMI has dropped to varying degrees. For the full year trend, in 2019 the average European manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, down 5.6 percentage points over the same period last year, fell significantly. From the monthly trend since the beginning of March 2019, the European manufacturing PMI 10 consecutive months running at 50% or less. As of 12 months, 4 months run 48% or less. From major countries, a marked decline in the manufacturing sector in Germany as the locomotive of Europe, to become a major force drag on economic growth in Europe. German manufacturing PMI since 2019 began in March continued to run at about 44% of the lower level, down to the lowest 41.7%, showed that German manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums. The remaining European countries manufacturing PMI showed a different degree of volatility downward trend. Index changes, uncertain impact of 2019 trade friction to the global economy and a serious drag on the international market demand for European countries, has become the main reason for the continued downturn in the European manufacturing growth is highly dependent on exports. International Monetary Fund recently released a forecast report, the fourth quarter of the euro zone economy is facing the risk of contraction is expected in Europe in 2019 real GDP growth will be only 1.4%, its lowest level since 2013. The European Commission will also soon 2019 and 2020 economic growth forecast revised down to 1.1% and 1.2%. How to resolve trade friction shocks, form a joint force development, it is a common problem faced by European countries. Policy inward, the use of fiscal and monetary policy to boost domestic demand portfolio is a key European manufacturing could turn stronger. It expected in 2020, on the basis of European manufacturing run low on there will be some degree of rebound. First, the low base effect will be revealed. After weak run in 2019, the European economy in 2020On a low base will be relatively easy to rebound, the probability of a rebound in economic data is large. Second, the policy underpinning the role will be revealed. In the pattern of weak economy, the European Central Bank to continue to release loose monetary policy of positive signals , and called on Member States to take the necessary fiscal policy. Next year the implementation of the policy underpinning the role of economic growth in Europe will be apparent. Third, the performance of the major countries or better. The latest statistics show that, thanks to the government and consumer spending increases and other factors, the German economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter, growth of 0.2%, exceeding market expectations, to avoid the first time in six years into a situation of economic recession. The degree of improvement in the German economy will rebound in Europe is an important reference level of manufacturing. French manufacturing sector since the second half of 2019 relatively well, thanks to its government based on expanding investment spending, which boost the European economy will continue to appear. American manufacturing from strong to weak, downward pressure in December 2019, the American manufacturing sector for two consecutive months of decline, down 1 percentage point from the previous month to 47.7%. For the full year trend, in 2019, the American manufacturing PMI mean of 51.2% over last year dropped 6.5 percentage points. From the monthly trend, the American manufacturing PMI showing high to low trend. The first half of the average American manufacturing industry maintained at a relatively high level of 53.3%, the second half to gradually weaken in the second half the average of 49% to 50%. The main change from the country, the US manufacturing sector from strong to weak fundamental factors leading American manufacturing changes. Supply Chain Management Institute (ISM) data showed the first half of 2019, the average US manufacturing PMI was 53.8%, the average dropped to 50% in the second half, 48.6%. Since August 5 consecutive months running at 50% or less. Expected in 2020, the US manufacturing sector continued to weaken, downward pressure will be increased. First, the high base effect will be apparent. And European manufacturing downturn different, the first half of 2019, the US manufacturing sector maintained rapid growth, rapid decline began in the second half. The first half of 2020 the presence of US manufacturing high base effect, the growth rate will continue to fall probability. Second, the lack of growth in US manufacturing constraints demand. Sub-index showed insufficient external demand is the main factor of the weaker US manufacturing operation. As of December, US manufacturing new ordersIndex continued to decline, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 46.8%, the fifth consecutive month running at 50% or less. Description data changes, market demand remains in the doldrums, the manufacturing sector continued to weaken short-term trend is difficult to change. The impact of falling demand and the future of many uncertainties, making the company the market is expected to become more cautious about the future. The poor performance of the manufacturing sector, reflecting the Trump tax cuts and government policies to revitalize the manufacturing sector has become the effect of weakening the impact of the US manufacturing trade friction has also been revealed. Third, market confidence is clearly insufficient. The Fed recently released Global Economic Survey report that the pace of US economic growth has slowed, and lowered growth expectations for the next 6-12 months. Duke company survey showed 67 percent of respondents CFO predicted that the US economy will fall into recession in the third quarter of 2020, 84% of respondents CFO believe the recession will begin in the first quarter of 2021, while 38% of respondents who predicted the first quarter of next year there will be a recession. Another example is a quarterly survey of the National Association for Business Economics showed that the respondents economists believe that the US economy into recession in the next year the possibility of up to 60%, which nearly doubled to 35% probability three months ago. The National Association for Business Economics and the “Wall Street Journal” survey released in December showed that most economists expect US economic growth in 2020 will slow to 1.8%. Asian manufacturing stable and little decrease, relatively mild trend of late December 2019, the Asian manufacturing PMI rebounded from the previous month by 0.3 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating manufacturing growth in Asia has accelerated from the previous month. For the full year trend, the 2019 Asian manufacturing PMI average of 50% over last year dropped 1.6 percentage points. From the monthly trend, the Asian manufacturing PMI relatively mild fluctuations. Average of the first three quarters were 49.5%, 49.7% and 49.2% in the fourth quarter average of 49.8%. Composite Index changes in the global economy downward pressure on background, Asian manufacturing growth has slowed Control Engineering Copyright , but the trend is relatively stable. The main countries in 2019, China’s manufacturing PMI mean of 49.7% over last year down 1.2 percentage points; the average Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, compared with the same period last year dropped 3.8 percentage points; South Korean manufacturing PMI average of 48.6%, compared with last year dropped 1.1 percentage points. From the Comparison Index, Japan andKorea downward pressure on the global economic impact strength relative to China are obvious. India, Vietnam and the Philippines and other countries have different levels of manufacturing slowed, but still maintain a rapid development, and manufacturing PMI remained above the average of 51%. 2020 Asian manufacturing is expected to show steady pattern of slowing down, remained relatively moderate trend. First, the Asian Development potential is still large. IMF predicted in a recent report, the Asian economic growth will slow down, but will remain an important engine of global economic growth. 2019 Asia’s contribution to global economic growth will be more than two-thirds, of which China’s contribution to global economic growth will reach 39%. Second, Asian countries’ policies to boost the space is still large. One of Asia’s economic growth is relatively stable because most Asian countries are developing countries, industrialization and urbanization is still room for development, market demand still has great potential for development. Regional economic cooperation between Asian countries and regions is greater, particularly in China advocated “along the way” development strategy, has created favorable conditions for regional economic stability. In response to downward pressure on the global economy, Asian countries while maintaining relatively loose monetary policy, increase infrastructure investment, hedge the impact of the economic downward pressure to some extent. Third, China has not changed for the better long-term fundamental trends, there is a strong supporting role in the economic development in Asia. 2019, despite China’s manufacturing decline, but the trend is more stable PMI Control Engineering Copyright , small fluctuations in the amplitude of 0.5 percentage points, there was no sharp decline, the growth rate down more moderate. In 2020, with the gradual degradation of high energy-consuming industries, economic growth is still expected to decline inertia, but an increase in positive factors. From a policy perspective, prudent monetary policy is still space to play, can better ensure ample liquidity, proactive fiscal policy will continue. From the perspective of economic structure, steady growth in high-end manufacturing, the service sector contribution rising economic structure was further optimized. From the consumer point of view, the slowdown in consumption in 2019 was mainly due to the impact of consumer auto, auto consumption is expected next year will be improved, with service consumption growth trend for the better, consumption is expected to achieve stability. From an investment point of view, to improve the infrastructure investment growth is a high probability event. From the export side, under the premise of Sino-US trade friction has eased, or export growth will be restored, drag effect on economic growth will be weakened. Based on the above, we think 2020 years China’s GDP growth or inertia continue to slow, but the cumulative effect of positive factors, downward pressure on the formation of certain hedging, economic downward trend compared to 2019 is expected to ease. African manufacturing to maintain a rapid growth in the late development potential in December 2019, Africa’s manufacturing PMI was 52.9 percent, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating manufacturing growth in Africa has accelerated from the previous month. For the full year trend, in 2019, African manufacturing PMI mean of 51.9% over last year dropped 0.1 percentage points each month were maintained at 50%. Sub-quarter view, mean one, two, three, four quarters was 51.6%, 51.5% and 51.8% and 52.5%, respectively. Comprehensive data changes, African manufacturing to maintain a rapid development, showing a strong growth potential. Expected in 2020, Africa’s manufacturing industry will maintain rapid development. Relatively stable political situation, the demographic dividend, urbanization and industrialization, the development potential is the main factor supporting rapid economic growth in Africa. Africa to strengthen regional integration and cooperation has become the main driving force of economic development help Africa. Africa FTA member countries will reduce tariffs on 90 percent of goods imported from other countries in Africa. UN survey, which may cause intra-African trade increased 52.3%, the FTA will also help to improve investment prospects of the continent.


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