On the one hand the complexity of product development, manufacturing continues to increase, the traditional methods, means, structure is not sufficient and stable control this complexity, forcing people to look for new business models; on the other hand new needs and new technologies are manufacturing a strong push to digital, networked, intelligent upgrading and restructuring. Whether the process is a “revolution” or “Evolution” (I prefer the latter), we are going through to intelligent manufacturing a typical feature of the fourth industrial revolution. First of intelligent manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing can be summarized in three paradigms: digital manufacturing, “Internet + create” a new generation of intelligent manufacturing (digital, networked, intelligent).
(Source: Chinese Academy of Engineering)
For China, manufacturing power is CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , global manufacturing is also one third of the world, the transformation of intelligent manufacturing both external pressure , there are also intrinsic motivation. China’s current economy is facing Lewis turning point, a prolonged slump in the birth rate, an aging population accelerated demographic dividend disappeared, while the rapid decline in the price of the machine, artificial intelligence and other new technologies accumulated initial results, and benefit from higher education, talent show dividends, demographic dividend + artificial intelligence is the future of economic take-off of the second engine, intelligent manufacturing role to play. Lewis turning point is approaching external pressure, the demographic dividend disappeared. Lewis turning point: the shortage of labor surplus to a turning point, refers to the process of industrialization, with the gradual transfer of surplus rural labor to non-agricultural industries, the rural surplus labor force gradually reduce and eventually reach bottleneck.
today’s Chinese manufacturing enterprises generally face recruitment difficulties, expensive recruitment, training workers in high costs, worker demands for improvement of the work environment, employee turnover increased sharply and other problems, is behind this labor under a declining birthrate and aging population accelerate background shortages. A set of data: in 2018 the birth rate was 10.94 ‰, 15.23 million newborn babies, and in 2017 was 17.23 million, down 2 million a year, thirty years ago it is 2500 +, 50 million less than the 80 after 90 after more than 00 10,000,090 then less. 2013 –2018 Labor proportion of the population fell from 73.9 to 71.8 percent, is expected in 2023 will drop to 70%, declining labor supply, rising labor costs, it has been ranked lawBetween States and Japan (figure below), the manufacturing sector in 2017 was 3.5 times the average wage in Vietnam.
(Source: think tank billion euros)
In this context , continue to fight low-end coolies unsustainable, manufacturing had a “big” turn “strong” , the added value of fight, fight high-end manufacturing. Internal pressure dividend talent show, the machine costs down, artificial intelligence help.
then the face of the demographic dividend disappear problem, not our economy is doomed to be old before getting rich, bleak future, brought to its knees? I think it may not be, to some chats (on the map), we have three major advantages over cut: Talent bonus show, the machine cost, artificial intelligence help, some given by the times, some results of their own efforts, the three major law enforcement blessing, without fear transformation storm. 1) Talent bonus release Colleges 2000 Great Leap Forward was criticized a lot, but in fact out of any analysis of the background are isolated one-sided, behind the Great Leap Forward is extreme scarcity of high-quality personnel, the 1978 National College graduate just 165,000 persons control Engineering Copyright , 950,000 in 2000, thanks to the expansion of the 20-year colleges and universities in 2018 to 820 million. 20-year increase of 8 times, these steady stream of high-quality talent flooded the market, although there is no demographic dividend, bonus talent has only just begun, countries are currently pushing vocational and technical education as a powerful supplement to promote social employment.
(the number of graduates of higher education rising fast)
2) machine rapid decline in the cost of the machine at the same time rapidly falling prices, the payback period is reduced to more than a year, industrial robots, for example, sales were 10 years ago price of around 500,000, and now the price is four families robot 15-25 million and domestic lower. A robot can replace four employees, the employees wages, depreciation charges, maintenance fees into account, cost recovery less than a year and a half. Companies have strong incentives for production automation transformation, in particular automotive, 3C, home appliances automation rate is more than 80%, 90% of the. 3) artificial intelligence to emerge since AlphaGo Control Engineering Copyright , artificial intelligence has become very concept of a fire, with the help of artificial intelligence, intelligent manufacturing can better organize and understand the market. China and the United StatesThe country is the world leader in research and development in the field of artificial intelligence, AI in recent years, both aspects of the unicorn enterprises, or papers published influence, China can go hand in hand with the United States, the gap significantly behind other countries in recent years, most of the domestic first-class universities have additional artificial Intelligence Institute, laying the foundation for future talent pool. Aside from artificial intelligence technology, mobile Internet a new era of super-computing, big data, cloud computing, networking and so on with each passing day, the rapid development and rapid application and popularization, forming a mass crossing, development of new technologies for the industrial revolution in history opportunity. It is foreseeable that talent is the future of artificial intelligence bonus + secondary economic take-off boosters. (Future Social Ideally ago 10 people need 7-8 individual work, thanks to the above points CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , only five people working, more and more humans enjoy)